WATU WA LIBYA WANAJIULIZA MASWALI HAYA MATATU...
By Gadiola Emanuel - 3:14:00 PM
A
six month NATO-aided rebellion in Libya has advanced on the capital,
Tripoli, in an effort to oust 42-year leader Muammar Gaddafi.
Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera's senior political analyst, comments on three key issues.
What's next for Libya and the national council?
It
is time for the Libyan people to celebrate the end of a four-decade
dictatorship. Once they sober up from the jubilations of their
well-deserved victory, however, they will discover this is only the
beginning.
Gaddafi has undermined, marginalised or obliterated
many of the state institutions, including the military, and destroyed
the political parties - indeed, political life in the country. There is
much to restore and more to build from scratch.
Security,
reconstruction and political transition are only a few of the challenges
they will face sooner rather than later. More importantly, they will
need to manage expectations of those who have given their all for
liberty, freedom and prosperity.
Having said that, there is no
need for alarm. Not yet any way. It's easy, even clichรฉd, to be
pessimistic, even negative, about the post-revolutionary challenge. What
is needed is optimism anchored in reality.
And judging from what
we have seen over the past five months, there is much to celebrate in
terms of building a steering council and creating locally based
revolutionary groups from the bottom up that have been well coordinated
and largely disciplined.
There have been disagreements and
suspicion over the past several weeks, and the full story of the
assassination of Abdul Fatah Younis is yet to emerge. And yes, there
have been certain violations and acts of revenge, but considering the
pent-up tensions and violence after decades of dictatorship and its
terribly criminal behaviour throughout the past few months, these have
been the exceptions to the rule.
The revolution has been a
pluralistic, all-encompassing coalition of people from all walks of
life. They paid attention to local and tribal sensitivities and
established an excellent coordination strategy between the local
revolutionaries and the national steering committee.
Unlike in
Egypt and Tunisia where pillars of the regime, notably the military,
remain in power, the Libyan revolution is set to wipe the slate clean
and begin anew. Democracy is its only way to success.
The
transitional council must remember its role is just that – transitional -
and avoid all tactics that prolong its unchecked authority.
You mentioned Egypt and Tunisia. What do the Libyan developments mean for the Arab Spring?
Libya
is much smaller and relatively less developed than its neighbours Egypt
and Tunisia. It also has much on its plate and will be preoccupied with
its own internal affairs for years, even decades, to come. That's why
one doesn't expect the new leaders in Tripoli to play any major regional
role in the near future.
However, the revolutionary contagion
will only accelerate after the success of the revolution in Libya. The
Assad and Saleh regimes should have much more to worry about today than
last week as the latest revolutionary domino falls.
Under pressure
from their people, the Arab regimes are going to have to act. Yemen is
next, and Syria, while more complicated, will have to follow suit.
The
same is true for the rest of North Africa. As a necessary bridge
between Egypt and Tunisia, oil-rich Libya could play an important role
in coordinating the three countries' future reconstruction strategies
and their relations with the rest of the region and with the West.
What about the Western powers - notably France, Britain and the US - where does the 'success' in Libya take them?
First
and foremost Western leaders need to wipe that smug look from their
faces and make sure not to gloat about doing the Arabs any favours.
Certainly the NATO aerial bombardment did help, but this was a revolutionaries' victory par excellence. The battle was won first and foremost in the hearts of the Libyans, just as with the Egyptians and Tunisians before them.
Besides,
after decades of complicity with Arab dictators, Western powers have
much to make up for: They inserted themselves in the Libyan revolution
after Gaddafi made genocidal threats against his people, but their
interference was not necessarily motivated by humanitarian ends, rather
more of the same geopolitics that led to befriending Gaddafi, Ben Ali
and Mubarak in the first place.
Syria is far more complicated and Britain and France will need to keep out of it militarily.
That's
not to say that the Libyans should be unappreciative for the extended
helping hand. Better to have Western powers on the right side of Arab
history for a change. And there is much room for cooperation and
coordination in the future, but it should be done on the basis of mutual
respect and mutual interest, especially that of the Arabs who are in
every need of affirmative action.
Western leaders must also steer
away from driving a wedge between those whom they consider moderates and
others deemed "Islamists", as Libya will need cooperation among all its
citizens.
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